The Polls Were Wrong

2/21/2016
Unit 2
link to article

Contrary to what one poll said Bernie Sanders did not win the majority of the Hispanic vote in the Nevada caucus.  Entrance and exit polls showed that Bernie Sanders won the majority of Hispanic votes and beat Hillary Clinton by 8 percentage points.  This has since be found to be false.  The poll was conducted at a very small number of precincts (there were only about 200 Hispanic respondents), the sample was not random (precincts had to be selected based on race), and the interviews were not necessarily given in the Spanish language.  This entrance/exit poll had an extremely high margin of error of at least plus or minus 7 percent.  Based on results from other polls and precinct results Hillary is still leading among Hispanic and Black voters.  This false report shows the importance of having accurate polls and researching the accuracy of a poll before believing the results.

People rely on polls to tell them how a particular candidate is faring in the election, or as in this case, how a particular candidate is faring among a particular race.  There was a recent exit poll conducted after the Nevada caucus.  This poll had an extremely large sampling error leading to an incorrect result.  It also shows the importance of having a random sample because not having a random sample led to an even higher sampling error.  The poll following the Nevada caucus was focused on identifying the opinion of one particular demographic, which led to a sample that was not random and a large sampling error.  Polls play an important role in giving people information during an election year and that is why the polls need to have a certain level of accuracy.