The Polls Were Wrong

2/21/2016
Unit 2
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Contrary to what one poll said Bernie Sanders did not win the majority of the Hispanic vote in the Nevada caucus.  Entrance and exit polls showed that Bernie Sanders won the majority of Hispanic votes and beat Hillary Clinton by 8 percentage points.  This has since be found to be false.  The poll was conducted at a very small number of precincts (there were only about 200 Hispanic respondents), the sample was not random (precincts had to be selected based on race), and the interviews were not necessarily given in the Spanish language.  This entrance/exit poll had an extremely high margin of error of at least plus or minus 7 percent.  Based on results from other polls and precinct results Hillary is still leading among Hispanic and Black voters.  This false report shows the importance of having accurate polls and researching the accuracy of a poll before believing the results.

People rely on polls to tell them how a particular candidate is faring in the election, or as in this case, how a particular candidate is faring among a particular race.  There was a recent exit poll conducted after the Nevada caucus.  This poll had an extremely large sampling error leading to an incorrect result.  It also shows the importance of having a random sample because not having a random sample led to an even higher sampling error.  The poll following the Nevada caucus was focused on identifying the opinion of one particular demographic, which led to a sample that was not random and a large sampling error.  Polls play an important role in giving people information during an election year and that is why the polls need to have a certain level of accuracy.

Ted Cruz Wins Republican Caucuses in Iowa

February 9, 2016
Unit 1
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Ted Cruz addressing his supporters after his victory.

The results from the Iowa Caucus

Ted Cruz put an end to Donald Trump's sense of invincibility with his victory in the Iowa caucuses on the first of February.  In the recent caucus Cruz ended the night as the winner, and he defeated Donald Trump even though it was only by a small margin.  Cruz's victory came from his ability to convince evangelical voters to vote for him.  Trump met his defeat because he could not persuade his supporters to go to the caucus and vote, even though there was a record turnout and 46 percent of the voters were voting for the first time.  Another important result from the Iowa caucus was the candidate that placed third.  Marco Rubio made a surge in the end to earn a close third place receiving only one percent less of the votes than Trump.  This makes Rubio a likely candidate for the republicans who do not support the two front runners.  After this caucus, the nation is eager to see the results of the primary taking place today in New Hampshire.

Republican candidates Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz

This article shows how the states exercise their rights awarded to them in the Constitution.  Iowa used its reserved power to run an election, as the people select all of their leaders in representative democracy like the United States. It also shows the people exercising their right to select their representatives.  This right is expressed in the United States Constitution as well as in the ideas of the of the key people during the Enlightenment.  The United States Constitution and the Bill of Rights protect the rights of all citizens and allows them to vote in elections like the Iowa caucus.  During the caucus none of the candidates earned a majority, even though Ted Cruz received the plurality.  The event discussed in this article is a real life example of how the United States government functions, and the ideals about how the government should be run that have been around since the forefathers of the United States wrote the Constitution.